Who’s leading who? (An expansion on my comment in yesterdays Daily Discussion)

A controversial post for a BTC sub I know, but please don’t down vote just yet. Something that genuinely helped me to trade this move better was accepting that BTC may not be leading the charge. I don’t really care for any other coin than BTC, but once I was willing to accept that I should cross reference the ETH/USD chart before making a BTC trade I started having much more success.

I believe a lot of the false signals that have been showing up recently are because a much more bullish ‘Alt Coin Cycle’ has been pulling us around and distorting our reference points and data.

See these charts for a side by side comparison of ETH showing buy signals, whilst BTC showing neutrality or sell signals. Followed by them both moving upwards.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MpkkEPvs/

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https://www.tradingview.com/x/cD5SmOUd/

Trading with hidden bullish divergence has been pretty flawless for the past 4 weeks. But, I like to have price action and chart confirmation to accompany it. With the ETH/USD chart I had that missing piece.

Final Note:
The top 5 alt coins combined have the same market cap as BTC, so to me it doesn’t seem unreasonable that they may push us around.

This next chart shows the top 5 Alt Coins, indexed and weighted by market cap. It looks to have topped out with a very obvious distribution pattern and a reversal head and shoulders in the making. I think this might spell bad news for BTC in the coming weeks.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/r4IJydqJ/

I hope this post helps some of you out and I welcome any criticism and an open discussion on this topic.



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    May 17, 2018
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