A controversial post for a BTC sub I know, but please don’t down vote just yet. Something that genuinely helped me to trade this move better was accepting that BTC may not be leading the charge. I don’t really care for any other coin than BTC, but once I was willing to accept that I should cross reference the ETH/USD chart before making a BTC trade I started having much more success.
I believe a lot of the false signals that have been showing up recently are because a much more bullish ‘Alt Coin Cycle’ has been pulling us around and distorting our reference points and data.
See these charts for a side by side comparison of ETH showing buy signals, whilst BTC showing neutrality or sell signals. Followed by them both moving upwards.
Trading with hidden bullish divergence has been pretty flawless for the past 4 weeks. But, I like to have price action and chart confirmation to accompany it. With the ETH/USD chart I had that missing piece.
The top 5 alt coins combined have the same market cap as BTC, so to me it doesn’t seem unreasonable that they may push us around.
This next chart shows the top 5 Alt Coins, indexed and weighted by market cap. It looks to have topped out with a very obvious distribution pattern and a reversal head and shoulders in the making. I think this might spell bad news for BTC in the coming weeks.
I hope this post helps some of you out and I welcome any criticism and an open discussion on this topic.